Mexico Security Memo: April 26, 2011
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110426-mexico-security-memo-april-26-2011
For example, most Mexican cartels have produced methamphetamine to an extent, but the Sinaloa Federation and La Familia Michoacana both have histories of large-scale methamphetamine production in the western states of Sinaloa, Durango, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero. Most of the methamphetamine produced by these cartels is smuggled north across the border into California and Arizona, the logical route for the cartels most heavily involved in the drug’s production, given the geographic areas and highways the they control.
Along the Texas border, long-term trends for methamphetamine seizures indicate the drug is moved less frequently and in smaller amounts than other drugs moved through the area, with occasional spikes being reported. STRATFOR sources have said spikes in seizures do not necessarily indicate a meaningful trend. Recently, however, there has been a consistent upswing in the size and frequency of methamphetamine shipments seized along the Texas border, specifically in the section of the border from Laredo to Brownsville, a section controlled mainly by the Gulf cartel and Los Zetas.
Projections of the amount of drugs smuggled across the border, based on collected drug-seizure statistics, are approximations at best. Too many unknowns make precise projections impossible, but STRATFOR sources have estimated that between 8 and 10 percent of drugs smuggled into the United States in the border region is seized by law enforcement.
Since mid-February, 661 kilograms (1,457 pounds) of methamphetamine have been reportedly seized by U.S. law enforcement between Laredo and Brownsville, while the reported total seized in the same area for the final three months of 2010 was 137 kilograms, indicating nearly a five-fold increase. With this area controlled mainly by two cartels not typically linked to methamphetamine distribution, STRATFOR believes that such a significant increase may indicate a change in cartel dynamics in the area. The Sinaloa cartel has a presence in the region in support of the Gulf cartel. We are inclined to believe that Sinaloa has benefited substantially from the association and has routed much larger quantities of their high-value commodity to the lower Rio Grande Valley. Whether this is the result of an agreement with the Gulf cartel or an overt takeover remains to be seen.
It should be noted that the Nuevo Laredo “plaza” has been a Zetas stronghold for several years (a plaza is a cartel’s territory that comprises parts the city itself, its adjacent highways and ports of entry), and with about 256 kilograms of methamphetamine seized since mid-February, we begin to wonder whether Sinaloa has co-opted some Zetas assets in the area — or if the Zetas have ramped up one or more superlabs to boost revenues for the area. The upswing also may be an indication that the Gulf and Zetas cartels are having difficulty getting cocaine from South America, and have had to diversify their product lines in order to keep cash flowing. In the case of Nuevo Laredo, there is also the possibility that the Zetas’ allies from the Pacific Coast, such as the Cartel Pacifico Sur (CPS), are now moving product through Zetas territory.
In any case, the increase in methamphetamine traffic is indisputable, and it indicates a change in cartel dynamics in the region that merits continued observation.
As of April 26, 58 decomposed bodies had been found in Durango. The state of decomposition indicates that the grave sites had been occupied for many months, longer than the mass graves in San Fernando. There are no reports attributing responsibility, but given the location in Durango state, we believe Sinaloa or the CPS are the most likely candidates.
It is unlikely a Zetas dumpsite. Their ruthlessness and violence notwithstanding, the Zetas are not the only cartel to dispose of bodies en masse. One method pioneered by the “El Teo” faction of the Arellano Felix Organization (aka the Tijuana cartel) involved the use of lye or acid to dissolve the bodies of their victims. In Mexico, people have been dying in the drug war in ever-increasing numbers, and the body count tabulated by the Mexican government and by Mexican and U.S. news agencies will never be accurate or complete. The mass graves found over the past few weeks are likely indications of things to come; as the violence in Mexico spreads, many of the dead will likely never be found.
April 19
April 20
April 21
April 22
April 23
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110426-mexico-security-memo-april-26-2011
A Change in Cartel Dynamics
Various drugs are smuggled more intensely in different regions along the U.S.-Mexico border, and some cartels are known to specialize in the production and distribution of certain drugs. Drug seizures can thus indicate much about the degree of influence and control the cartels have in a given area.For example, most Mexican cartels have produced methamphetamine to an extent, but the Sinaloa Federation and La Familia Michoacana both have histories of large-scale methamphetamine production in the western states of Sinaloa, Durango, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero. Most of the methamphetamine produced by these cartels is smuggled north across the border into California and Arizona, the logical route for the cartels most heavily involved in the drug’s production, given the geographic areas and highways the they control.
Along the Texas border, long-term trends for methamphetamine seizures indicate the drug is moved less frequently and in smaller amounts than other drugs moved through the area, with occasional spikes being reported. STRATFOR sources have said spikes in seizures do not necessarily indicate a meaningful trend. Recently, however, there has been a consistent upswing in the size and frequency of methamphetamine shipments seized along the Texas border, specifically in the section of the border from Laredo to Brownsville, a section controlled mainly by the Gulf cartel and Los Zetas.
Projections of the amount of drugs smuggled across the border, based on collected drug-seizure statistics, are approximations at best. Too many unknowns make precise projections impossible, but STRATFOR sources have estimated that between 8 and 10 percent of drugs smuggled into the United States in the border region is seized by law enforcement.
Since mid-February, 661 kilograms (1,457 pounds) of methamphetamine have been reportedly seized by U.S. law enforcement between Laredo and Brownsville, while the reported total seized in the same area for the final three months of 2010 was 137 kilograms, indicating nearly a five-fold increase. With this area controlled mainly by two cartels not typically linked to methamphetamine distribution, STRATFOR believes that such a significant increase may indicate a change in cartel dynamics in the area. The Sinaloa cartel has a presence in the region in support of the Gulf cartel. We are inclined to believe that Sinaloa has benefited substantially from the association and has routed much larger quantities of their high-value commodity to the lower Rio Grande Valley. Whether this is the result of an agreement with the Gulf cartel or an overt takeover remains to be seen.
It should be noted that the Nuevo Laredo “plaza” has been a Zetas stronghold for several years (a plaza is a cartel’s territory that comprises parts the city itself, its adjacent highways and ports of entry), and with about 256 kilograms of methamphetamine seized since mid-February, we begin to wonder whether Sinaloa has co-opted some Zetas assets in the area — or if the Zetas have ramped up one or more superlabs to boost revenues for the area. The upswing also may be an indication that the Gulf and Zetas cartels are having difficulty getting cocaine from South America, and have had to diversify their product lines in order to keep cash flowing. In the case of Nuevo Laredo, there is also the possibility that the Zetas’ allies from the Pacific Coast, such as the Cartel Pacifico Sur (CPS), are now moving product through Zetas territory.
In any case, the increase in methamphetamine traffic is indisputable, and it indicates a change in cartel dynamics in the region that merits continued observation.
A Mass Grave in Durango
A mass grave was found April 21 in Durango, Durango state. While a great deal of attention has been focused on mass graves discovered in San Fernando attributed to the Zetas, we believe the Durango discovery is important, too, because it is a reminder that the Zetas are not the only Mexican drug-trafficking organization that engages in mass murder. As of April 26, 58 decomposed bodies had been found in Durango. The state of decomposition indicates that the grave sites had been occupied for many months, longer than the mass graves in San Fernando. There are no reports attributing responsibility, but given the location in Durango state, we believe Sinaloa or the CPS are the most likely candidates.
It is unlikely a Zetas dumpsite. Their ruthlessness and violence notwithstanding, the Zetas are not the only cartel to dispose of bodies en masse. One method pioneered by the “El Teo” faction of the Arellano Felix Organization (aka the Tijuana cartel) involved the use of lye or acid to dissolve the bodies of their victims. In Mexico, people have been dying in the drug war in ever-increasing numbers, and the body count tabulated by the Mexican government and by Mexican and U.S. news agencies will never be accurate or complete. The mass graves found over the past few weeks are likely indications of things to come; as the violence in Mexico spreads, many of the dead will likely never be found.
April 18
· Unidentified gunmen attacked two fuel stations in the municipality of Canatlan, Durango state. The attackers used small arms and grenades to damage the two stations, but no injuries were reported.
· Unidentified attackers shot and injured the deputy director for the State Security Agency for Tejupilco, Mexico state, as he drove with a bodyguard in Temascaltepec, Mexico state.
· Unidentified people left two decapitated bodies near a gas station in the Valle del Sur neighborhood of Durango, Durango state. The victims’ heads were found several blocks away.
· Soldiers arrested two suspected cartel lookouts in Cadereyta, Nuevo Leon state. The suspects were detained after their car crashed into a utility pole while they were attempting to escape.
· Soldiers in the Infonavit Rio Medio neighborhood of Veracruz, Veracruz state, killed 10 suspected cartel gunmen in a firefight. Ten other alleged gunmen were arrested.
· Unidentified attackers threw two improvised explosive devices at the Tultitlan Polytechnic University in Tultitlan, Mexico state. One device exploded, injuring one man. The other device failed to detonate and was deactivated by police.
· Unidentified gunmen opened fire on a police station in Culiacan, Sinaloa state, killing two people. The attackers fired more than 700 rounds at the building.
· Police in the Los Olivos neighborhood of Leon, Guanajuato state, found the body of a man reportedly killed by the La Familia Michoacana cartel. The victim’s head had been wrapped in packing tape. A message was found near the body, but authorities did not disclose its contents.
· Unidentified gunmen attacked a prison transport convoy in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua state, killing one guard and injuring four others. Three prisoners were freed in the attack.
· Residents of the municipality of Tecamac, Mexico state, found the bodies of two unidentified men. The victims bore signs of torture but had apparently not been shot.
· Police found the burned bodies of two men in the municipality of Pueblo Nuevo, Durango state.
· Authorities freed 40 police officers arrested April 19 in Cadereyta, Nuevo Leon state, for alleged links to Los Zetas, Mexican media reported.
· Unidentified gunmen attacked several car dealerships and other businesses in Miguel Aleman, Tamaulipas state, with grenades and small arms. No injuries were reported in the attacks, which were unofficially attributed to the Gulf cartel.
· Unidentified gunmen in the Santa Teresa, Jalisco and Colinas del Saltito neighborhoods of Durango, Durango state, set three houses on fire. No injuries were reported in the attacks.
· One soldier and one suspected cartel gunman were killed during a firefight in Miguel Aleman, Tamaulipas state. Eleven other people were arrested after the incident. According to a military news release, gunmen from Los Zetas and the Gulf cartel were involved in the firefight.
· Unidentified attackers damaged a car dealership in southern Monterrey, Nuevo Leon state, with two grenades. No injuries were reported.
· Soldiers in the municipality of General Bravo, Nuevo Leon state, freed two people reportedly kidnapped April 9. One person was arrested in connection with the kidnappings. The raid occurred at a ranch on the highway to Reynosa, Tamaulipas state.
· Police found the bodies of five women at separate locations in Acapulco, Guerrero state. The victims’ throats had been slit, and a message was found near one of the bodies.
· The decapitated body of a man was found near a gas station in Durango, Durango state.
· Unidentified gunmen traveling in two vehicles shot and killed five men in the Riberas del Sacramento neighborhood of Chihuahua, Chihuahua state.
· Unidentified gunmen opened fire on three buses in separate incidents in the municipality of Hidalgo, Tamaulipas state. Three people were injured in the attacks.
· Residents of the Chapultepec neighborhood of Mexico City discovered the dismembered body of a woman inside a cardboard box and two suitcases.
April 24
· One police officer was reported injured and three people were arrested after a firefight between police and unidentified criminals in Ecuandureo, Michoacan state. Five police officers had previously been injured in an ambush by unidentified gunmen in Ecuandureo.
· Unidentified gunmen opened fire on police stations in Hualahuises and Linares, Nuevo Leon state. No injuries were reported in either attack.
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